The phenomenon of globalization plays a decisive role in world trade in goods and services, to understand this behavior is necessary to review the historical facts that have made this possible. To understand the forces determining the future of world trade is first necessary to understand the historical forces that led to the current global trading system, performing a thorough analysis and effective factors determining international trade and its implications for trade policy it is necessary to have a clear idea of how it has evolved over time trade performance, to achieve this it is necessary to analyze the past, present and future trends in international trade and economic activity, starting with a historical analysis of the evolution of trade from the preindustrial era to the present, focusing on the key role played in the past, technology and institutions. For this reason it is necessary to identify major trends in international trade in recent decades, for this show who are the main actors and concerning international trade, which countries trade and with whom, and how it has changed over time nature trade.
The origin of a global trading system, as so many other aspects of modern world economy can be attributed largely to the industrial revolution. The extraordinary technological advances that resulted in transport and communications systematically reduced the costs of movement of goods, capital, technology and people around the world.
The growth of a global economy, increasing investment and technology, increased international specialization, the rise of new economic powers and the dramatic increase growth and population would not have been possible without large-scale expansion of international trade in recent years. At the same time, the spread of industrialization promoted a new expansion of international trade and economic integration. Since the mid-nineteenth century, the world population has increased considerably, which has also happened with world production and world trade. This phenomenon of intensification of integration and increased growth is what we now call globalization. Although the technological and structural forces are the main driver of globalization, political forces play an equally crucial role, sometimes facilitating and protecting the rise of a globally integrated market and other slowing it down.
The evolution of globalization over the past 200 years has not been accompanied by increased state intervention, both nationally and internationally. However, on other occasions, politics intervened, sometimes consciously and other accidental way, to slow or even reverse the integrationist pressures of technology and markets.
As regards the structure of trade in the future, simulations of the economy and world trade in the coming decades it possible to establish several conclusions. The rise of developing countries will be maintained, these countries will trade more and more with each other. Developing countries have much more to gain than developed countries of a dynamic economic conditions and trade openness, and more to lose if the omens are met and proliferate trade tensions. The services also gain weight in world trade in virtually all countries.
Despite the current trend towards regionalization of trade, it is unlikely that multilateral trade relations lose importance, and could increase significantly. Predictions about future trade show to what extent the results depend on the assumptions base, and warrant further major factors determining trade and economic growth analysis: demography, technological progress, energy and natural resources, transportation and institutions. Therefore, the remainder of the report these fundamental economic factors and the effects it could have on trade policy is devoted to analyzing in depth, in a broader socio-economic context. Also the global trade takes several decades to grow, on average, almost twice as fast as world output. This reflects the growing importance of international supply chains; thus the importance of measuring trade in value added.
In conclusion, we can say that the industrial revolution was the main engine of development of the trading system of the modern world: the important technological advances in transportation and communications, together with the growth of population and investment, they fueled the sharp increase in international trade in the XIX and XX. Trade liberalization had a limited role in the expansion of international trade during the first stage of globalization. After the Great Depression and World War II, however, the political and economic cooperation between different countries to reduce trade barriers was key to trade not ceased to grow during the second stage of globalization.